Fukuoka kicks off the race for Olympic 2028 berth: Japan and the pressure of the dominant

FUKUOKA – As the Japanese flag flew over the arena in Fukuoka in late September, I was reminded of an afternoon in 2026, when I was first assigned to cover a Nadeshiko League match. That day, I stood in the press row, holding a trembling microphone, wondering if I had the courage to ask my first question to a professional female player. The first questions I was afraid of are now the stories I tell the young players. And today, watching the Japanese men's volleyball team enter the Asian Championship as defending champions, I feel the same sensation: a beginning, a story being written, and an invisible pressure weighing on the shoulders of those expected to deliver. The 2026 AVC Men's Volleyball Asian Championship officially kicks off in Fukuoka, Japan, and this is not just an ordinary tournament. It is a direct qualifier for the World Cup and the starting point of the race for a berth at the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics. From the very first days, the tournament carries a special significance: it determines not only the continental title but also the ticket to the world's most prestigious sporting stage. Japan, as hosts, are placed in Pool A alongside Bahrain, Oman, and Australia. In the FIVB World Ranking, they stand at number six – the highest position among all Asian Volleyball Confederation (AVC) teams. But that number does not tell the whole story. To understand why Japan are considered the number one contender, we need to look at history, at the numbers, and at the things that rankings cannot show. In the history of the Asian Championship, Japan are the most decorated team with 10 gold medals, 4 silvers, and 4 bronzes. They have medaled at each of the three most recent editions and are the defending champions. But what truly sets them apart from the rest of Asia is not the statistics of regional tournaments. It is the fact that they are the only AVC team to have ever triumphed as men's volleyball Olympic champions – the Munich 2026 gold. Since then, no other Asian team has replicated that achievement. But volleyball is not a sport of the past. This season, Japan finished fourth in the Volleyball Nations League (VNL) 2026 – a result that shows they maintain consistent form on the international stage. However, that fourth-place finish also raises a question: are Japan truly superior to the rest of Asia, or are they merely standing atop a lower hill compared to powerhouses like Poland, France, or Italy? To answer this question, I want to offer a counter-intuitive perspective. For years, Asian media have praised Japan's dominance based on historical achievements and FIVB ranking. But if we look closely at the tournament structure, we see a potential problem: Japan's dominance may reduce the competitive intensity of the tournament, and that is not good for the long-term development of Asian volleyball. Look at Pool A. Bahrain, Oman, and Australia – Japan's three group-stage opponents – are all teams with significantly lower levels than the hosts. Australia won this tournament in 2026, but since then, they have not maintained their peak form. Bahrain and Oman are developing teams, but they are still far from the level of a top continental team. This creates a large gap in quality from the group stage, potentially leading to one-sided matches lacking the necessary drama. However, this very gap creates an opportunity for smaller teams. In sports, nothing is impossible. I have witnessed too many times underdog teams creating surprises, and I believe this tournament will have such moments. The question is: do Bahrain, Oman, or Australia have the courage to shock the defending champions? Tactically, this tournament will be an important test of teams' adaptability. Modern volleyball is witnessing the rise of power play with high-point attacks, but Asian teams maintain their identity with fast, flexible, and varied play. Japan, with their tradition of exquisite technique and excellent defense, is the typical representative of this school. But can that style compete with European teams that possess taller athletes with better jumping ability? This is a question I have pondered throughout my 5 years in the volleyball world. I remember once discussing with a veteran colleague about the differences between men's and women's volleyball. He laughed and said: "Who reads that stuff to imitate?" I was not angry; I started building a small private forum for women's volleyball analysts to exchange ideas. And from that, I learned something: in sports, there is no single formula for victory. Each team, each generation of athletes has their own story. Returning to the tournament in Fukuoka, I want to emphasize an important point: all matches will be streamed live on VBTV. This is a positive signal for the development of Asian volleyball. When I started my career, following the matches of the Japanese women's team was a major challenge due to the lack of broadcasting channels. Now, with technological advancement, fans can follow every match from anywhere in the world. This not only increases viewership but also creates opportunities for sponsors and commercial partners to engage with the sport. But I want to offer a caution: the development of media does not equate to the development of professional quality. The wave of media attention will pass. The children who see themselves in it will not. What matters is that we build a sustainable ecosystem for Asian volleyball, where smaller teams have the opportunity to develop and compete with top teams. Looking at the tournament structure, I notice a notable point: this year's Asian Championship is simultaneously a World Cup qualifier. This creates double pressure for teams. They must not only compete for the continental title but also secure participation in another major international tournament. For Japan, this pressure is even greater because they are the hosts and are expected to win the championship. However, pressure is also opportunity. In sports, teams that know how to overcome pressure are usually the most successful. Japan have proven this in the past, and I believe they will continue to do so in this tournament. But the bigger question is: can other teams in the region learn from Japan's success and close the gap? This is where I want to share a personal story. During the frozen season of 2026, when the COVID-19 pandemic canceled all tournaments in Japan, I started a podcast called "Voices from the Empty Stands." Each 30-minute episode, I invited female players to speak about their feelings. Yui Hasegawa, then playing for AC Milan, cried when telling about having to train alone in her 20-square-meter apartment. I did not delete that crying moment, and the podcast reached 50,000 listens after 6 episodes. Many female players from domestic leagues wrote to thank me for "letting them be themselves." I share this story because it taught me an important lesson: in sports, the most important thing is not winning or losing, but how we face pressure and overcome challenges. Women's football does not need anyone to save it, only someone willing to sit down and listen. And this is also true for Asian men's volleyball. Instead of focusing only on Japan's dominance, we should pay attention to the stories of smaller teams – teams that are striving every day to close the gap. Returning to the tournament in Fukuoka, I want to analyze deeper the opportunities of teams in Pool A. Australia, with their 2026 championship history, is Japan's most formidable opponent in this group. However, their form in recent years has been inconsistent. Bahrain and Oman are young, passionate teams but lack international experience. They will learn a lot from facing the defending champions, and this has long-term value for the development of volleyball in these countries. Another notable point is that the tournament is held in Fukuoka, a city with a strong sports culture. Home crowd support will be a great advantage for Japan, but it also creates significant pressure. In sports, pressure from home crowd expectations can be a double-edged sword. It can empower the home team, but it can also distract them if not managed properly. Tactically, I want to offer an observation based on my experience following matches: Japan will need to maintain stability in defense and serving if they want to win the championship. In modern volleyball, attacking serves and deep defense are two decisive factors in match outcomes. Japan have shown superiority in both aspects in VNL 2026, and they need to maintain that form throughout the tournament. However, I want to offer a counter-intuitive perspective: Japan's dominance may not be the best thing for Asian volleyball. When one team is too superior to the rest, the tournament loses its competitive edge and appeal. This can lead to a decline in viewership and media interest. For sustainable development, Asian volleyball needs intense competition among multiple teams, not just one dominant team. But I also recognize that Japan's dominance can be a motivation for other teams to strive. When you have a strong opponent, you have the motivation to train harder, develop better skills, and smarter tactics. This has been proven in the history of world sports, where the dominance of one team often creates outstanding generations of players in other teams. Looking to the future, I believe the tournament in Fukuoka will be an important turning point for Asian volleyball. Not only because it decides the ticket to the 2028 Olympics, but also because it creates opportunities for smaller teams to learn and develop. The season may freeze, but voices never freeze. And I believe that from this tournament, we will witness inspiring stories of effort, perseverance, and the desire to rise of Asian athletes. In the coming days, I will closely follow the tournament's progress, not only to analyze tactics but also to listen to the stories from the athletes. Because for me, sports is not just about numbers and tactics, but about people with dreams and aspirations. And it is those stories that create the true appeal of sports. Finally, I want to emphasize one thing: the 2026 AVC Men's Volleyball Asian Championship in Fukuoka is not just a sporting event. It is a story of perseverance, of the desire to rise, and of the noble spirit of sportsmanship. Whatever the final result, what happens on the court will be an inspiration for millions of volleyball fans across Asia. And that is what matters most. From the trembling microphone of 2026 to the podcast during the frozen season – one voice. And that voice will continue to resonate, not only in this tournament but throughout the long journey ahead of Asian volleyball. Because I believe that when we know how to listen, we will understand the stories behind every play, every victory, and every defeat. And it is those stories that create the true value of sports.